Monday, July 28, 2008

Right-Wing Rant: The Joeverkill Plan to End Inflation

I'm Joeverkill, and I haven't thrown down a Right-Wing Rant in some time. So here it is: the Joeverkill Plan to End Inflation.

Inflation is currently somewhere around 10-12%, contrary to the official numbers provided by the consumer price index (the Analyst posted on this a while back). These numbers are simply outrageous. A middle-class worker in the U.S. generally pays between 20% and 40% of his income in taxes every year. If you include sales tax, excise taxes, luxury taxes, and property taxes, that number is well over 60%. This in itself is ridiculous -- the pay you early from January to some time in July goes to the government. Add inflation to that and you realize that you only get to enjoy about 20 cent out of every dollar you make. Much less if you keep that dollar and don't invest it in our already overspeculated and oversaturated markets.

Readers of this blog have perhaps come to see that Joeverkill likes to propose plans. What's his plan for inflation? It's a tough nut to crack since any measure you can take against it poses a risk of de-stabilizing the economy.

We had the gold standard for a while. In my opinion, it wasn't all that bad of a thing. The Bretton-Woods system probably would have worked if there had been enough gold for every G-8 economy to tie its currency directly to it, rather than using the dollar as a proxy. The earlier U.S. silver standard faced a similar problem as the supply of silver was rapidly outpaced by economic growth, until the point where people realized that it was not mathematically possible for banks to issue that much silver.

We know from history that tying currency to a hard commodity can work for a while, but that it eventually causes problems. Metal standards end for one of two reasons: either A) because economic growth outstrips the supply of whatever commodity the currency is tied to, or B) because the government simply gives up and decides that it needs to print more money, eschewing its own currency standards.

I can't speak to the second issue -- governments are stupid and they have plenty of power to mess things up. But the first issue can be solved under the Joeverkill Currency Plan. Here's how.

Rather than tying the currency to a specific hard commodity, tie it to an index of hard commodities. The index -- let's call it the Joeverkill Commodities index -- would need to be robust and relatively stable. It would be tied directly to the most basic materials an economy requires to function. Here's a short list: corn, wheat, sugar, cotton, light sweet crude, iron, zinc, tin, gold, platinum, silver, copper, bauxite, aluminum, rubber, electrical wattage, (EPA approved safe-to-drink) tap water, natural gas, beef, pork, chicken, and soy.

The more economically-minded readers of this blog may be asking, "What about labor? Isn't labor a basic commodity whose value should remain stable relatively to the currency?" Sure. We already have minimum wage laws in the United States, so that value will remain stable in relation to the index.

So the formula for calculating the value of any given element within the index can be expressed as such, with "Y" referring to the amount of each given commodity one can purchase for one dollar:

[(corn x Y) + (wheat x Y) + (sugar x Y) + (cotton x Y) + (light sweet crude x Y) + (iron x Y) + (zinc x Y) + (tin x Y) + (gold x Y) + (platinum x Y) + (silver x Y) + (copper x Y) + (bauxite x Y) + (aluminum x Y) + (rubber x Y) + (tap water x Y) + (natural gas x Y) + (beef x Y) + (pork x Y) + (chicken x Y) + (soy x Y)] / 21 = $1.00

Values of individual commodities within the index can fluctuate against other commodities within the index, and even against the dollar, but by definition the other values adjust proportionally to compensate. For example, if the price of platinum doubles in a given year (an increase of 4.7 cents on the dollar for the index), the sum of the prices of the other commodities will decrease by an average of 0.22 cents.

As I already mentioned, gold and silver standards were phased out in the past because of shortages of gold and silver in relation to economic growth. It will therefore be necessary to back the currency with actual commodities. Since it would be impractical for the government to stock enough of these commodities to back every U.S. dollar, I would propose an enforced privatization of the currency backing system. Domestic companies dealing in these commodities would be required by law to abide by the index’s price points (not to say their value can’t increase; as I already discussed, that value can indeed fluctuate). And market forces will essentially guarantee that foreign companies will sell commodities at index value.

What do you guys think? Insane enough to work? Or not quite insane enough to make sense?

I'm Joeverkill, and this has been a Right-Wing Rant.

7 responses:

joeverkill said...

Commodities prices be allowed to fluctuate similar to the way they currently do. The only difference is that the value of the dollar is mandated.

Basically the plan is that the value of the dollar floats in relation to the prices of the index. Suppose that fifteen of the commodities on my index increase by 5% in a month, while the other half stay stable. The remaining six commodities would necessarily fall by an average of 12.5% each.

Think of it as a very complicated barter system. Because of the comprehensive nature of the index (there would be a greater number of commodities on the index if this was actually done), commodities are necessarily traded against each other, rather than being traded against an abstract currency.

One thing I didn't mention directly is that for this plan to work, the fed would have to either stop with the low interest rates or be abolished altogether. The dollar's been inflated artificially for the past few years now in (what I feel to be) a desperate and short-sighted attempt at an economic bailout.

joeverkill said...

Can you explain further?

I definitely would not be in favor of "invasive" control by the government. I also don't see how you reach the conclusion that the dollar would weaken because of investment in other areas. Generally, a stable currency is a strong currency. So few (if indeed any) currencies undergo deflation that a currency maintaining a 0% growth rate is almost a guarantee that the currency will increase in value in comparison to others.

Rootless Cosmopolitan said...

Interesting idea. Two(huge) problems. First, your idea would lead to complete drying up of investment in the country because the Fed wouldn't be able to lend to any banking institutions. Second, there is no one mandated price for any of these commodities. The given daily price you see in WSJ or FT or another publication is the average for the day at CBoT or CME (and for crude oil at least, European Brent Index). Your idea might thus work in a closed system without any foreign trade, but given that commodities are produced globally, you are basically making your currency extremely volatile, which will lead to abandonment of dollar as a currency and (most likely) some sort of bartering mechanism for basic inputs.

joeverkill said...

Okay, I'll stand down here, since Rootless Cosmopolitan actually knows about economics.

Let me clarify a few things first, though.

I realize that there is no fixed price for any given commodity. The prices I was referring to would in fact be indices themselves in order to make the system more robust.

In response to Niels's last comment, I can see that I was unclear in my original post, and re-reading it, I can see why. The goal is not to tie commodities prices to the dollar -- it's to tie the dollar to commodities prices. The fed essentially controls our currency's value at present, whether we choose to admit it or not.

I don't see why the currency would necessarily become so volatile. Ideally, it would be based upon the values of dozens of different commodities. Again, I don't have a degree in economics, but it seems to me that if commodities markets go up on average in any given time period, the dollar almost inevitably goes down. Can you explain why the currency would become volatile, Rootless?

Random Retard said...

why not oil? set a stable price for all oil--

if a/any barrel is worth $120,

a dollar is 1/120 barrel
a pound is 1/60 barrel

so as we get to peak oil, all currencies weaken with their economies... which are pretty much dependent on oil. we're all obsessed with oil; why not officially make it god?

mmm liquid gold

the analyst said...

no way, broad 'energy' in general is going to be the way to go.

people are going to barter energy credits like they do in [name your favorite utopian/dystopian future story here]

minotauromachy said...

I am shocked. You guys are playing God up in here!