Thursday, April 24, 2008

why don't we give them funny-sounding racehorse names, too?

just when you thought this political election cycle couldn't get any more ridiculous, slate is now charting the chances of each candidates by monitoring political betting markets.

Even worse? These are actually MORE accurate than exit polls. "A single person's bet on an election outcome isn't very good, but thousands of bets, with real stakes, are more likely to predict the correct result than even the best pundit. The Iowa Electronic Markets, the big daddy of the political prediction markets, is consistently better at forecasting winners than pre-election polls." we could spend plenty of time wondering why these polls are more accurate. my guess is that being pc and lying about voting for the black guy won't help you make any money.

speaking of which, the obamskeets still has 4-to-5 odds to beat hillary in the donkey primaries, and 2-to-1 odds to win the whole thing. however, i'm pretty sure the entire betting system is a little out of whack, since they're not even considering the possibility of a bush/cheney coup d'etat, armageddon, or jesse 'the douchebag' ventura.

as for my bet, i've got a five-spot on 'hail to the queef' in the second race.

0 responses: